National life expectancy assumptions sit quietly at the heart of almost every long‑tail personal injury claim. Yet the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in their statistical bulletin ‘Healthy life expectancy by national area deprivation, England and Wales: between 2013 to 2015 and 2022 to 2024’, released on 15 April 2026 shows that those assumptions rest on deep and persistent regional inequalities. Where a person lives and, crucially, the level of deprivation in that area, remains one of the strongest predictors of how long they are likely to live and how many of those years will be spent in good health.
These disparities are easy to overlook when figures are presented as national averages. Look more closely, however, and the differences become striking.
In England, a male born in one of the most deprived areas can expect to live more than ten years less than a male born in one of the least deprived areas. For women, the gap is smaller but still substantial. Wales shows a similar pattern, with deprivation again closely linked to markedly shorter lifespans.
The picture becomes even more stark when healthy life expectancy is taken into account. Healthy life expectancy measures not just how long someone lives, but how many of those years are spent in good or very good health. The ONS data makes clear that people living in the most deprived areas not only die earlier, they also spend a far greater proportion of their shorter lives in poor health.
The table below summarises the most recent ONS estimates for life expectancy and healthy life expectancy (2022–2024). It highlights the extent to which outcomes diverge by sex and level of deprivation.
| Area and deprivation level | Male life expectancy | Female life expectancy | Male healthy life expectancy | Female healthy life expectancy |
England – most deprived areas | 73.2 years | 78.3 years | 49.8 years | 48.2 years |
| England – least deprived areas | 83.6 years | 86.4 years | 69.2 years | 68.5 years |
| Difference within England | 10.4 years | 8.0 years | 19.3 years | 20.1 years |
| Wales – most deprived areas | 73.6 years | 78.4 years | 49.7 years | 47.3 years |
| Wales – least deprived areas | 81.9 years | 85.1 years | 67.8 years | 66.3 years |
| Difference within Wales | 9.6 years | 8.0 years | 20.6 years | 23.1 years |
What stands out is not just the gap in total lifespan, but the even wider gulf in healthy life expectancy. In England, for example, the difference in healthy life expectancy between the most and least deprived areas is around 19 years for men and 20 years for women. In Wales, the gap is larger still.
Seen in this way, the regional story hidden within national averages becomes difficult to ignore. Two individuals of the same age and sex may sit within the same national life table, yet their statistical prospects for longevity and future health can look very different depending purely on postcode and deprivation.
National actuarial tools necessarily smooth out those differences to deliver simplicity and consistency. The ONS data, however, shows just how much variation is being absorbed into a single average, and what is lost in the process.
The post‑pandemic backdrop adds further weight to these findings. While overall life expectancy has improved since the height of Covid‑19, the ONS confirms that outcomes in the most deprived areas have not returned to pre‑pandemic levels. Healthy life expectancy has fallen across every deprivation group since 2019–2021, with the steepest declines seen in poorer areas.
These effects are not treated as short‑term distortions. They are embedded within the current estimates and form part of the baseline against which future expectations are measured.
The ONS rightly emphasises that these are area-based measures, not predictions about any individual. Healthy life expectancy estimates also carry a degree of statistical uncertainty, and many people living in deprived areas will live longer and healthier lives than the averages suggest.
Even with those caveats, the consistency, scale and persistence of the differences point to structural inequality rather than isolated variation.
These disparities raise uncomfortable questions for the Ogden Tables, which underpin lump sum compensation awards in personal injury and fatal accident claims. Current multipliers are based on 2018 UK‑wide projections and risk being both outdated and overly generous, particularly for male claimants, when viewed against more recent data and pronounced regional variation.
In theory, courts could adopt updated assumptions or even regionalised multipliers. In practice, they have consistently resisted such changes, concerned about increased complexity, satellite litigation and inconsistent awards.
For insurers, the risk lies in overcompensation where multipliers assume higher life expectancy than current data supports. Arguments for reduced multipliers typically require detailed expert evidence, which courts are reluctant to permit. Even where such arguments are allowed, they may backfire by opening the door to claimant arguments for higher multipliers based on individual circumstances.
The likely reality is that the status quo will hold until the Ogden Working Group updates the tables, a process that has historically moved at a glacial pace, with nine years separating the seventh and eighth editions.
Until that happens, practitioners should remain alive to the widening gap between contemporary life expectancy data and the assumptions embedded within compensation awards. National averages may deliver consistency, but they do so at the cost of obscuring deep and enduring inequalities.
As health disparities remain entrenched and the long-term effects of the pandemic continue to shape outcomes, understanding what lies beneath the averages is no longer optional. It is essential to any informed assessment of long-term personal injury risk.
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