ONS data shows recovery post-Covid, yet stark regional differences challenge the fairness of Ogden Table multipliers.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published its National life tables – life expectancy in the UK: 2022 to 2024 on 10 December detailing the trends in period life expectancy. These tables measure the average number of years people will live beyond their current age, analysed by age and sex for the UK and its constituent countries.
At the same time the ONS has also published Life expectancy for local areas of the UK: between 2001 to 2003 and 2022 to 2024 specifying the subnational trends in period life expectancy, a measure of the average number of years people will live beyond their current age.
Life expectancy is gradually returning to pre-Covid levels, though some pandemic effects remain. For females, life expectancy at birth is back to 2017–2019 levels (83.0 years), while males remain slightly lower (79.1 years). At age 65, averages have risen to 21.2 years for females and 18.7 for males; both up since 2019–2021.
Regional variation remains stark. The highest life expectancy areas are concentrated in southern England, while the lowest are in northern England and Scotland. For example, males in Hart live 83.7 years compared to 73.7 in Blackpool; a 10-year gap. Females in Kensington and Chelsea reach 87.1 years versus 78.7 in Glasgow City.
| Lowest Life Expectancy – Males (Years) | Lowest Life Expectancy – Females (Years) | Highest Life Expectancy – Males (Years) | Highest Life Expectancy – Females (Years) | |
| England | 73.7 (Blackpool) | 79.1 (Blackpool) | 83.7 (Hart) | 87.1 (Kensington and Chelsea) |
| Scotland | 74.3 (Glasgow City) | 78.7 (Glasgow City) | 81.5 (East Renfrewshire) | 84.9 (East Renfrewshire) |
| Northern Ireland | 76.5 (Belfast) | 80.5 (Belfast) | 80.5 (Lisburn and Castlereagh) | 83.8 (Fermanagh and Omagh) |
| Wales | 75.0 (Merthyr Tydfil) | 79.2 (Blaenau Gwent) | 80.3 (Glamorgan) | 84.6 (Monmouthshire) |
These disparities likely reflect socio-economic differences and raise questions about the Ogden Tables, which underpin lump-sum compensation in personal injury and fatal accident claims. Current multipliers, based on 2018 UK-wide projections, risk being outdated and overly generous (especially for males) given recent data and regional variation. While courts could adopt updated or regionalised multipliers, they have historically resisted such changes, fearing complex litigation and inconsistent awards.
For insurers, the concern is overcompensation where multipliers assume higher life expectancy than current data supports. Arguments for reduced multipliers require expert evidence, which courts rarely allow. Even if permitted, such challenges could backfire, enabling claimants to argue for higher multipliers. Realistically, the status quo will hold until the Ogden Working Group updates the tables - an historically slow process (nine years between the 7th and 8th editions).
Until then, practitioners should remain alert to the gap between current life expectancy data and the assumptions underpinning compensation awards.
David Burn - Complex Injury Associate Solicitor
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